You can say that the ECB is waiting for an appropriate excuse to be able to raise rates. In fiscal matters, although both the United States and the eurozone are facing large deficits given the need to mitigate the effects of the crisis on economic growth, in the first place, the U.S. deficit is clearly superior to that observed in the euro area (in the U.S. it reached 12% of GDP and for the coming year will remain above 8% of GDP). Moreover the eurozone has by the Maastricht Treaty, which meet an objective Prosecutor (fiscal deficit must not exceed 3% of GDP), although it has been superseded in several countries of the block in this crisis period, representing a disciplining parameter which must be more strictly possible fashion. The trade deficit of the US economy although it has experienced a slight reduction product of the strong economic slowdown, remains at high levels.

In 2007 and 2008, the current account deficit American stood at 5.3% and 4.7% of the gross domestic product (GDP), respectively. The euro area has observed deficits in 2007 and 2008 (0.2% and 0.4%, respectively), the level is clearly lower than the observed in the American economy. A better perspective observes the latter in terms of growth since it has grown stronger than the eurozone during 2008 (1.1% versus 0.8%) and has better prospects for 2009 and 2010 (- 2.2% and 1.6% growth versus – 3,0% and 0.6% for the eurozone, according to Latinfocus). To summarize, the major part of the fundamental macroeconomic variables would be indicating a perspective of relative strengthening of the euro against the dollar. Situation that is not pleasing or Government Obama or the countries that comprise the eurozone, which need external sector to recover as quickly as possible the path of growth. We expect that the euro continue its upward trend to return to their peak levels of 2008? In principle there is scope to think that Yes, though not necessarily that need to occur in the short term. This bottom-up behavior of the euro against the dollar can sue several months or perhaps more than that.

Despite this, the intention of Obama by having a strong dollar and the intention of the eurozone countries that the euro will not experience an excessive appreciation, more force that can make china’s economy in maintaining a strong demand for dollars to sustain its value, can avoid the prospects of relative strengthening of the euro are realized. On the other hand, the U.S. Government is developing a plan of fiscal reform aimed to reduce its high deficit. In addition, is priority for Obama recompose the competitiveness of the economy, to underpin its growth path. The success of this economic policy can give back the fortress lost the dollar achieved it? In case of not achieved this result, and if the euro tempts us, is good to recall the recommendation of Paola and resorting to the ETF CurrencyShares Euro Trust (NYSE:FXE) that follows the evolution of the euro.